Nebraska’s promising start to the 2025 college football season took a hit with a narrow 30–27 loss to Michigan, just before heading into their bye week. The defeat not only ended the Huskers’ unbeaten run but also reshaped their trajectory in ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), which evaluates team strength and predicts future performance.
After a strong win over Akron, Nebraska had surged to No. 12 in the FPI rankings. But following the Michigan setback, the Huskers now sit at No. 21. Despite the drop, the team remains in solid postseason contention. ESPN now projects Nebraska to finish with 8.5 wins and gives them a 99.3% chance of reaching the six-win threshold required for bowl eligibility.
Here’s how Nebraska’s win probabilities have shifted for each remaining game on the schedule:
| Date | Oppo. | FPI Rank | Preseason Win % | Week 2 Win % | Week 4 Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 4 | Michigan State | 61 | 77.3% | 87.0% | 85.5% |
| Oct. 11 | at Maryland | 48 | 63.7% | 74.2% | 67.3% |
| Oct. 17 | at Minn. | 59 | 53.0% | 69.5% | 76.2% |
| Oct. 25 | Northw. | 78 | 79.2% | 91.6% | 91.6% |
| Nov. 1 | USC | 8 | 39.5% | 36.1% | 39.1% |
| Nov. 8 | at UCLA | 93 | 52.1% | 82.5% | 89.9% |
| Nov. 22 | at Penn. | 10 | 16.3% | 29.7% | 31.5% |
| Nov. 28 | Iowa | 31 | 57.1% | 76.9% | 71.4% |
While the loss to Michigan was a setback, Nebraska’s overall outlook remains optimistic. The Huskers are favored in five of their final eight matchups, with particularly strong odds against Northwestern and UCLA. Their toughest tests will come against top-10 opponents USC and Penn State, where win probabilities remain below 40%.
As the team regroups during the bye, fans and analysts alike will be watching closely to see if Nebraska can capitalize on its favorable schedule and return to its early-season form.