The sky is starting to fall on this Nebraska football season.
The Huskers have reached an intersection at the start of a bye week before their final three-game stretch. Coach Matt Rhule faces a critical decision about his offensive staff. He must plan for USC, rally the locker room and simultaneously devote energy to shape his roster for 2025.
“Why I decided to come here was to win,” freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola said in the wake of another ultra-disappointing defeat, 27-20 on Saturday at home against UCLA. “I still think we can win. There’s no doubt in my mind. But it’s hard, to say the least.”
Raiola is the cornerstone of Rhule’s build. Without him, the danger of a collapse rises. And as the Huskers sadly regress from a brief September high, the ramifications of every decision or delay in taking action demand scrutiny.
A short window exists for Rhule to stabilize the foundation, because the reality is, right now, Nebraska football stands on shaky ground. This offense is holding the Huskers back. It’s a liability and a drag on the program.
The situation is urgent.
This is the reality of coaching college football in the modern era. With recruiting in the final stretch and the transfer portal set to open in 35 days, in any scenario, this juncture rates as the most challenging time to keep a program on the right road.
“Obviously, when today happens, people are going to be disgruntled,” Rhule said on Saturday. “You’re going to hear things. Players are going to hear things. That’s all part of it when you lose games. If I was in the stands today, I’d be frustrated. A lot of guys in the locker room are probably frustrated because they know we’re better than that.
“But we are where we are. You just have to play yourselves back into it.”
The wrong move from Rhule in November could lead to an exodus. Every young standout on his roster, including the five-star QB, faces a choice at this time of year — to buy back in or bolt. The likes of Raiola, wide receivers Jacory Barney and Carter Nelson, linebacker Vincent Shavers and others will be coveted by more successful programs.
The roster-poaching threat is high, no different than a year or two ago for Nebraska. But the stakes this time around are elevated.
Nebraska, at 5-4, is in danger of missing a bowl game for the eighth consecutive season and second year under Rhule. But even if the Huskers beat USC or Wisconsin, both struggling, the larger question about progress remains.
A trip to the GameAbove Sports Bowl in Detroit on Dec. 26 or the Bad Boy Motors Pinstripe Bowl on Dec. 28 in New York would soothe a few egos and sustain minimal momentum. It wouldn’t, by any stretch, signal that Nebraska’s major offensive problems are solved.
After the Huskers lost 21-17 on Oct. 26 at Ohio State, the question was this: Could fans finally trust Nebraska?
Offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield offered a big “N-O” on Saturday at Memorial Stadium as his group tripped and slogged through another uninspiring performance.
The Huskers rank 107th offensively in yards per play. Nebraska has still not won under Rhule when it allowed more than 14 points. Even on Saturday, when Tony White’s defense faltered early, it had just one clunker of a drive after halftime and gave the offense a shot to win in the fourth quarter.
“In this league,” Rhule said, “if you have the ball at the end and a chance to go down and score and tie or win the game, that’s Big Ten football.”
Against Ohio State or Iowa, OK. But it should not be so hard every week.
I asked punter Brian Buschini, a cagy vet in his sixth year of college football, if that game fit his view of how Big Ten football ought to look.
“I would say the Big Ten is like a mini-NFL,” Buschini said. “From that standpoint, yes. But Big Ten football should not look like the amount of mistakes and errors that we made.”
Look, Rhule says a lot in his media sessions. After the Huskers’ strong showing in defeat at Ohio State, Rhule explained that he gets into detail and tries to run a transparent operation as a service to Nebraska fans who deserve to know what’s going on — and for young coaches who watch him.
Rhule acknowledged that his long explanations can be misinterpreted or over-evaluated. So I don’t believe that when Rhule said the Huskers largely stayed away from screen passes against zero-blitz UCLA pressure, he meant that Satterfield was impacted by fan and media criticism last week of the short passing game.
Regardless, against zero blitz, with no coverage behind the rush, that’s when screen passes work. Throw them.
“It starts with me,” Raiola said, “getting the ball in playmakers’ hands.”
A mature sentiment from the 19-year-old QB, but it starts with the play caller and the head coach who puts the OC in position to exploit a defense.
Rhule said that UCLA typically starts fast and that it had an edge coming off a bye week. The Huskers expected to weather a storm on Saturday. And they did, ultimately staying close despite disparities of 21-3 and 119-2 in first-quarters play and yardage.
Why cede the role of aggressor to the Bruins?
“You have to come out and make plays,” Rhule said. “You can’t ease your way into this.”
Bottom line, Nebraska was flat-out bad against a UCLA defense that ranked 14th in the Big Ten in yards allowed per game to enter Saturday.
The Bruins gifted Nebraska a key 15 yards on each of its three scoring drives — all unsportsmanlike-conduct penalties for activity after the whistle. At least one was questionable.
The first call came after a third-down Raiola incompletion in the second quarter. Nebraska was set to punt. The second came after a first-down run by Dante Dowdell that went for negative yards in the third quarter. It took the Huskers across midfield en route to the end zone. The third came at the 2-yard line in the fourth quarter after an unsuccessful third-down run by Heinrich Haarberg.
When UCLA didn’t commit silly penalties, it forced Nebraska into three punts, two interceptions and a pair of failed fourth downs. Without the flags, the Huskers may not have scored.
So spare everyone the “in the end, it worked” commentary. Rhule said that about Nebraska’s slow pace of play near the goal line before its final touchdown. Raiola hit Isaiah Neyor for a gain to the 9-yard line with 7:35 to play. Raiola suffered a back injury on a run for the goal line as the Huskers used nearly four more minutes to get in the end zone with help from one of those flags.
Technically, it worked. Really, it cost Haarberg access to the full offense on Nebraska’s final drive, which began with 2:20 left. The red-zone mismanagement was inefficient and out of sorts, like all that we’re seeing from Satterfield’s scheme.
So what’s the move?
“Find a rhythm,” Neyor said. “Just go out there and execute.”
The Huskers are grasping. The offense desperately needs a jump start to prevent the worst-case scenario.
Rhule could demote Satterfield before the final stretch. Maybe a new voice and some better direction would spark the offense to a solid finish. Perhaps it could convince Nebraska’s young standouts, committed recruits, potential four-star flips and portal prospects that the future looks bright.
Right now, this isn’t the offense for which anyone signed up to play.